Reilly Opelka says what has happened in tennis for the first time in years since Jannik Sinner’s ban

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Jannik Sinner is drawing ever closer to a return to the ATP Tour following his three month ban from the sport.

Sinner is returning at the Italian Open, having not competed since winning his third Grand Slam title at the Australian Open back in January.

Since accepting a three month ban from the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), Sinner has been practising in Monaco, where the current Monte Carlo Masters is taking place.

Despite not being able to earn any ranking points, Sinner will still be world number one when he returns after his rivals have been unable to capitalise on his absence.

Reilly Opelka says the ATP Tour has become open since Jannik Sinner’s ban

Sinner made history in 2024, losing just six matches all year and winning a tour-leading eight titles including the Australian Open, the US Open and the ATP Finals.

The 23-year-old continued that form into 2025, with Sinner defending the Australian Open in dominant fashion.

However, since Sinner was banned there appears to have been more surprising results, including Alcaraz losing to David Goffin in his only match at the Miami Open.

World number two Alexander Zverev has also been faltering, having only won six of his 12 matches since losing to Sinner in that Australian Open final.

When speaking on the Nothing Major podcast, the often outspoken Reilly Opelka, who has previously won a doubles title with Sinner, spoke about how tennis has changed since ‘the big three’ era.

Opelka also suggested that there is now a bigger gap between Sinner and the world number seven, than between the world number seven and the world number 60.

“There is a changing of the guard,” said Opelka. “We got so used to Roger [Federer], Rafa [Nadal], Novak [Djokovic] for so long that people would just go to tournaments to only see them. And now with Jannik and Carlos it is a different kind of flair, especially Carlos.

“He is probably the hottest ticket you can buy right now. You are going to see more highlights from him than from any other player, but he could still lose. He could very well win the tournament or lose in the second or third round. I think for the first time, especially with Jannik not present at Indian Wells, we can officially say the draw is open or it’s up for grabs.

“For the longest time it was just three guys who were likely to win the tournament. Even now, there is a larger discrepancy in ranking between Jannik, who is number one in the world, and the guy who is number seven in the world.

“There is a larger discrepancy in level between them than there is between a guy who is seventh in the world and 60th in the world. I think Jannik is more likely to be the seventh best player eight or nine times out of 10, than the seventh best player is to beat the 60th player in the world eight or nine times out of 10.

“I think you would say the same with Novak in his prime, or when Roger was number one in the world. Now with Jannik you would say the same. So for the short term, for the next three months, we don’t have that so it is as open as ever from here until when he is back.”

Sinner is backed to win the Italian Open when he returns to the ATP Tour, as he looks to assert his dominance once again.

Is Reilly Opelka right about Jannik Sinner?

While Opelka was just using a random number in the rankings to support his point, we wanted to see how accurate his claim actually is.

Sinner has beaten Casper Ruud, the current world number seven, in all three of their meetings so far which supports Opelka’s point.

While Ruud has actually won his only meeting against the current world number 60 Juncheng Shang, who is only 20-years-old.

However, there have been some recent occasions where Ruud has lost to players around that ranking, including in November last year when the Norwegian was beaten by Benjamin Bonzi, who was the world number 124 at the time.

In 2025, the average ranking of the five opponents that have beaten Ruud is 40.2, suggesting that Opelka’s assessment is not too far off.