Felix Auger-Aliassime is still trailing Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner by some distance in one area.
Auger-Aliassime ended the 2025 season at a career-high ranking after finishing the year in sensational form, including reaching the semifinals of the US Open and the final of the Paris Masters.
After the Canadian enjoyed the best season of his career so far, Alcaraz praised Auger-Aliassime as one of the biggest standouts.
Auger-Aliassime is predicted to continue this form in 2025 and potentially challenge Alcaraz and Sinner, but he will need to make a big improvement in one area in particular if he is to do so.
Felix Auger-Aliassime needs to improve his break point conversion rate
While Auger-Aliassime has achieved such great results this year, he has not been particularly clinical.
This is shown in the year-end statistics, with Auger-Aliassime winning just 33% of his break point opportunities.
From the players in the current top 10 on the ATP Tour, Auger-Aliassime has the lowest break point conversion rate from 2025 and by some distance, being 6% below joint eighth-placed Lorenzo Musetti and Jack Draper.
| Top 10 players | Break Point Conversion Rate |
| Jannik Sinner | 45% |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 44% |
| Alex de Minaur | 43% |
| Novak Djokovic | 42% |
| Ben Shelton | 41% |
| Alexander Zverev | 40% |
| Taylor Fritz | 40% |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 39% |
| Jack Draper | 39% |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 33% |
Considering that Auger-Aliassime is hoping to break the dominance of Alcaraz and Sinner, this is not a good sign.
Players get very few opportunities to break the serves of both Alcaraz and Sinner, and Auger-Aliassime is unlikely to win very many matches against the top two players with a break point conversion rate of just 33%.
This feels even more prevalent as Sinner and Alcaraz top the break point conversion rate list from the top 10 this year, leaving Auger-Aliassime’s usually reliable serve more under threat when he plays them both.
Auger-Aliassime previously led the head-to-head against both Alcaraz and Sinner, but he has since lost his last seven matches against them.
Where do you think Felix Auger-Aliassime will finish the year ranked next year?
The one area where Felix Auger-Aliassime leads both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner
While Auger-Aliassime’s break point conversion rate is nothing to shout about, he does lead Alcaraz and Sinner in one particular area.
Although Sinner had the best serve rating on the ATP Tour in 2025, he and Alcaraz trail Auger-Aliassime by some distance in one particular serving statistic.
If you could change one rule in tennis what would it be and why?
Auger-Aliassime has hit a huge 783 aces in 2025, which is over 300 more than Alcaraz and Sinner produced this year.
There are only two ATP players who hit more aces than Auger-Aliassime this year, both being American players in Taylor Fritz and Reilly Opelka.
| Serving stats in 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | Jannik Sinner | Felix Auger-Aliassime |
| Aces | 463 | 405 | 783 |
| First Serve Points Won | 74% | 79% | 77% |
| Second Serve Point Won | 57% | 59% | 52% |
While he leads the ace statistic, Auger-Aliassime trails Sinner in both the number of points he has won on first and second serve.
Auger-Aliassime will need to keep his serving statistics up to the same level if he is to stand any chance against Alcaraz and Sinner in the 2026 season, which he will begin representing Canada at the United Cup alongside Victoria Mboko.
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