The ATP Finals will serve as the grand finale after a long and relentless tennis season.
Defending champion Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal has cleared the way for the final eight players to compete in Turin, with Alex de Minaur, Andrey Rublev, and Casper Ruud completing the lineup.
Alexander Zverev comes into the tournament with momentum after his recent Paris Masters win, while Carlos Alcaraz suffered a surprising early exit in the French capital.
However, world number one Jannik Sinner, who withdrew from Paris due to illness, remains the heavy favorite heading into the event.
With a stellar season that includes six hardcourt titles, Sinner has had a magnificent year, making him the player to beat in Turin.
Now that the two groups have been confirmed, The Tennis Gazette takes a look at the biggest winners and losers that have come from the ATP Finals draw.
Group Nastase: Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Alex de Minaur
Group Newcombe: Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev
Alexander Zverev (Winner)
Coming off a major confidence boost from his Paris Masters win, Zverev will be eager to finish a turbulent year on a high note.
The German has previously claimed two ATP Finals titles, in 2018 and 2021, and will be aiming for a third.
He boasts a positive head-to-head record against both Ruud and Rublev, giving him an advantage in those matchups.
While Zverev is tied 5-5 with Alcaraz in their head-to-head, the Spaniard has shown inconsistent form on hard courts in recent months, which may provide Zverev with an opening.
Taylor Fritz (Loser)
Fritz faces an immensely tough road at the ATP Finals, landing himself in a group that promises repeated and varied challenges.
After reaching the US Open final, Fritz hasn’t managed to sustain that high level, suffering early exits in Paris and Tokyo.
In this group, he’ll be up against Sinner, who defeated him decisively in New York, and Medvedev, a former ATP Finals champion and hard-court specialist with a head-to-head edge over the American.
Additionally, he’ll face De Minaur, arguably the tour’s fastest player and an opponent who pushes Fritz to extend rallies, something outside his preference for shorter points.
Fritz has also struggled against the Australian trailing 5-3 in their matchups.
It’s a draw that will either force the American to elevate his game and reach his best level, or risk a rather demoralising week in Turin.
Jannik Sinner (Winner)
Sinner enters the ATP Finals as a formidable contender, especially on hard courts.
Although he withdrew from the Paris Masters due to illness, the move seemed precautionary, allowing him to rest up for Turin.
With seven titles this year – six on hard courts – Sinner has shown consistent dominance.
The Italian has won seven out of his last eight against Medvedev, with victories at both the US Open and Shanghai.
He also comfortably handled Fritz in the US Open final – a victory in the middle of a run that has seen him only lose one of his last 26 matches, a close battle with Alcaraz in Beijing.
As last year’s finalist, he’ll have strong support from the home crowd in Italy, which could fuel his ambitions even further.
Casper Ruud (Loser)
Ruud’s entry into the ATP Finals comes as a surprise given his challenging season and recent dip in form.
Despite being a former finalist at the event, by his own admission, he is a clay-court specialist.
While he’s seen success on clay this year, winning the Barcelona title in April and reaching the French Open semi-finals, his results on hard courts have been inconsistent, and he now faces a group of powerful ball-strikers who thrive on faster surfaces.
The Norwegian has a negative head-to-head record against all three of his group opponents, which could make for a difficult path forward.
His recent struggles include multiple losses to players outside the top 50, with early exits in both Basel and Paris.
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