Rafael Nadal will strive for a fairytale sendoff into retirement with Spain at the 2024 Davis Cup Final 8, but how far will the 22-time Grand Slam champion go in Malaga?
Our expert team of writers at The Tennis Gazette have taken a deep dive into all of the main storylines due to unfold at the Davis Cup Finals, and offered their predictions for the season-ending tournament. Nadal will dominate the headlines but he is not the only story to follow.
The 2024 Davis Cup Finals marks the last time that the tennis world will see the Spanish icon compete on a professional court. Nadal will retire after the Davis Cup Finals on home ground in Spain, where the 38-year-old hunts a fifth crown after titles in 2004, 2009, 2011 and 2019.
Spain have not won the Davis Cup since Nadal helped secure the country’s sixth title to date in 2019. Instead, Italy arrived at the 2024 Davis Cup Finals as the defending champions after lifting their second title so far in 2023. Italy also have the ATP Tour World No1, Jannik Sinner.
Sinner was instrumental to Italy’s success at the 2023 Davis Cup Finals, where they earned a 2-0 win over Australia in the final. His 6-3, 6-0 win over Alex de Minaur handed Italy the win against their rivals from Down Under after Matteo Arnaldi beat Alexei Popyrin 7-5, 2-6, 6-4.
Only the United States of America with 32 Davis Cup titles have lifted the crown more often than Australia have won it with 28. So, with that in mind, our expert team of writers at The Tennis Gazette predict all of the major storylines set to unfold at the 2024 Davis Cup Finals…
Who will win the Davis Cup Finals in 2024?
Sammy France: “I think you would be mad to bet against Jannik Sinner with the form he is currently in. He looks set to guide Italy to a successful Davis Cup title defense – especially given their strong team.”
Lee Clarke: “It’s hard to back against Jannik Sinner in any event, and he will be backed up superbly well by Lorenzo Musetti. I see Italy beating Argentina comfortably and then Sinner can inspire victory over the USA or Australia, depending on who comes through that one.”
Liam Llewellyn: “There are some strong teams at the Davis Cup Finals, such as defending champions Italy and Spain featuring their best-ever player in the competition, the retiring Rafael Nadal.
“But the balanced Team USA of Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton, who have each had impressive seasons, alongside with Olympic silver medalist and experienced doubles team of Rajeev Ram and Austin Krajicek, will come out on top and lift a record-extending 33rd Davis Cup title.”
George Patten: “There may well be more eyes on the 2024 Davis Cup Finals than any other edition of the event in recent memory. The Spanish fans will be desperate to see home-favourite Rafael Nadal end his career with one last victory in Malaga.
“Unfortunately for the Spanish contingent, the Italians provide some pretty scary opposition and led by world number one Jannik Sinner, they look like the team to beat.
“Entering as the defending champions, it’s tough to see that a fully fit Italian team will struggle at the Davis Cup Finals, and it looks like they will be the ones to spoil the party.”
Predicting the biggest disappointment at the 2024 Davis Cup Final 8
Sammy France: “Last year’s runners-up, Australia, may struggle against a strong USA team. Their path to success doesn’t look as straightforward this year. A recently returned Alex de Minaur might struggle to replicate his heroics from last year, as well.”
Lee Clarke: “[It is] controversial but I’m going with Spain. Carlos Alcaraz isn’t at his best it would seem and, well, Rafael Nadal is under pressure to perform before he calls time on his career. I’m sorry but I just think this Nadal goodbye comes probably 12 months too late.”
Liam Llewellyn: “Australia have it all to do if they are to win their first Davis Cup title since 2003. They have finished as the runners-up the past two seasons and with the USA in the first round, that will be as far as they go in 2024.
READ MORE: All to know about the 2024 Davis Cup Final 8 from how to watch to the teams
“It is still unknown if Australia’s top-ranked player Alex de Minaur will play. After he made a recent return from injury and lost each of his matches at the ATP Finals, too much will be asked of him to lead Australia to victory.
“Furthermore, the USA look very solid and well balanced and with their big hitters coming into the fold, they will be too strong for the Aussies.”
George Patten: “On paper, the United States should be one of the favorites to win in Malaga, with top 20 stars Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul accompanied by young prospect Ben Shelton and two accomplished double stars in Rajeev Ram and Austin Krajicek.
“Tennis isn’t played on paper, however, and something doesn’t feel quite right about the Americans, who could fall to defeat against a tough Australian team in the quarter-finals.”
How far will Spain and Rafael Nadal go at the 2024 Davis Cup Final 8?
Sammy France: “I expect Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz will lead Spain to the semi-finals before the party may come to an unfortunate end. They should breeze past the Dutch, but Spain risk a slip-up in the semi-finals that will ruin a historic farewell for Nadal.”
Lee Clarke: “I do think Spain will beat the Netherlands but I expect Canada or Germany will see them off in the semis.”
Liam Llewellyn: “Spain will be bolstered with Rafael Nadal on their team, who has won the Davis Cup four times and has not played in the competition since 2019.
“There is a possibility he plays doubles with Carlos Alcaraz as they did at the Olympics, and everyone would want to see him one more time before Nadal bids farewell from tennis.
READ MORE: Davis Cup Final 8 2024 format explained from structure to player eligibility
“That being said, Spain will have enough to defeat the Netherlands and either of Canada or Germany in the semi-finals. But Nadal will fall just short in the final of a winning end to his illustrious career.”
George Patten: “Rafael Nadal’s final tournament could well have a fairytale ending, but the Italian team could put an end to the Spaniard’s story in Malaga.
“Carlos Alcaraz may lead the team all the way to the final with wins over the Netherlands and Canada or Germany not all that unlikely. But a Jannik Sinner-led Italian team may just be one step too far.”
Predicting the player to have a standout Davis Cup Finals in 2024
Sammy France: “Jannik Sinner will undoubtedly be the standout player at the 2024 Davis Cup Finals. He’s an obvious choice but he’s in top form and it certainly doesn’t look like letting up anytime soon. That said, keep an eye on Alexander Zverev, who is ending the season on a high and looking very dangerous.”
Lee Clarke: “Let’s go for Taylor Fritz. He’s finished the season well and looks destined for a big title at some point in his career.”
Liam Llewellyn: “Ben Shelton will have a strong Davis Cup Finals. This will mark his first appearance in the competition and he thrives in teams as fans have seen in the Laver Cup.
“With the added incentive of playing for his country alongside his compatriots, Shelton will aim to end a season in which he reached a career-high ranking of 13 and won another title with victory in the Davis Cup.”
George Patten: “Australia have a tough opening match against the USA at the Davis Cup Finals and a victory would reward them with an even tougher matchup against Italy.
“They may not go all the way in Malaga, but Alexei Popyrin could well be one to stand out in the Davis Cup Finals. Fresh off a career-best year that saw the Australian win his first Masters 1,000 title in Canada, Popyrin may spring an upset or two at the Davis Cup Finals that will get a lot of people talking.”
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