Carlos Alcaraz has been dethroned as world number one after Jannik Sinner won the Paris Masters.
Alcaraz became world number one after winning the US Open, ending Sinner’s dominant 65-week run at the top of the ATP rankings.
Very few people, including Sinner, gave the Italian much chance of obtaining the top ranking back this year, but Alcaraz suffering a shock early defeat at the Paris Masters left the door open for that to happen.
Sinner won the Paris Masters to return to world number one, and now Alcaraz knows exactly what he needs to do to catch his rival by the end of this year.
How Carlos Alcaraz can end the 2025 season as the world number one
Alcaraz has only two tournaments left this year, but with the Davis Cup no longer offering ranking points he can only secure his place as year-end number one at the ATP Finals.
Despite no longer being at the top spot, Alcaraz is still in pole position to end the year at the top of the ATP rankings, as Sinner won the ATP Finals last year and still has 1,500 points to defend this year.
Alcaraz now knows that if he wins all three of his round-robin matches at the ATP Finals then that will confirm his spot at the top.
While it is the most sure-fire way for Alcaraz to achieve this, he could also end the year as world number one with just two round-robin wins if Sinner fails to go unbeaten at the ATP Finals.
Even if Sinner wins the ATP Finals by going unbeaten, Alcaraz can still end the year as world number one if he reaches the final and loses one match in the round-robin stage.
The permutations are set for the last tournament of the year, with Alcaraz very much in the driving seat over Sinner.
| ATP Finals Scenarios | Jannik Sinner | Carlos Alcaraz |
| Lose all three round robin matches | 10,000 | 11,050 |
| One Round Robin win | 10,200 | 11,250 |
| Two Round Robin wins | 10,400 | 11,450 |
| Three Round Robin wins | 10,600 | 11,650 |
| Semifinal win + two Round Robin Wins | 10,800 | 11,850 |
| Semifinal win + three Round Robin Wins | 11,000 | 12,050 |
| Title win + two round robin wins | 11,300 | 12,350 |
| Unbeaten title win | 11,500 | 12,550 |
Carlos Alcaraz’s record at the ATP Finals suggests this could be harder than it looks
While Alcaraz may still have the advantage over Sinner in terms of the race to ending the year as world number one, his record at the ATP Finals suggests that it may not be as straightforward as it seems.
Alcaraz’s indoor hard court record is relatively poor compared to other surfaces, and this reflects at the ATP Finals where he has a negative win-loss record.
This includes last year’s tournament, where Alcaraz was knocked out at the ATP Finals round-robin stage.
| Year | Carlos Alcaraz’s Win-loss Record at the ATP Finals | Carlos Alcaraz’s Result at the ATP Finals |
| 2023 | 2-2 (50%) | Lost in the semifinals to Novak Djokovic |
| 2024 | 1-2 (33%) | Knocked out a the Round-robin stage (Lost to Casper Ruud & Alexander Zverev) |
Alcaraz finished the year as world number one in 2022, and he will need to improve his ATP Finals record if he is to do the same in 2025.
While Sinner will be looking to become the first man to end the year as world number one in back-to-back seasons since Novak Djokovic in 2020 and 2021.
All will be discovered when the ATP Finals takes place between November 9-16.
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