Carlos Alcaraz has confirmed something big ahead of the US Open after reaching his second Cincinnati Open final.
Alcaraz reached his first Cincinnati Open final in 2023, losing to Novak Djokovic despite having a championship point.
After an early exit in 2024, the Spaniard has returned to winning ways in Cincinnati, which includes Alcaraz surpassing a Roger Federer record.
Alcaraz beat Alexander Zverev to reach his second Cincinnati Open final, which could now have a big impact on proceedings at the US Open.
Carlos Alcaraz could take the world number one ranking away from Jannik Sinner at the US Open
Jannik Sinner has been world number one for over a year, with his reign currently at 62 weeks and counting.
However, with Alcaraz’s latest victory it means that Sinner’s world number one ranking will definitely be on the line at the US Open.
Sinner currently has a 2,240 point lead in the live ATP rankings, but that is not as big a deficit as it appears on the surface.
Last year, Sinner won the US Open and is consequently defending a huge 2,000 points at the New York major.
Whereas Alcaraz was stunned in the second round of the US Open in 2024, and only has 50 ranking points dropping off his ranking.
This means that there is now an exciting US Open ahead, as Sinner and Alcaraz compete for both a Grand Slam title and the world number one ranking.
| Race to become world number one | Sinner if he wins Cincinnati final | Sinner if he loses Cincinnati final | Alcaraz if he wins Cincinnati final | Alcaraz if he loses Cincinnati final |
| Before the US Open | 11,830 | 11,480 | 9,590 | 9,240 |
| Points dropping from the US Open last year | -2000 | -2000 | -50 | -50 |
| (US Open) First Round | 9,840 | 9,490 | 9,550 | 9,200 |
| Second Round | 9,880 | 9,530 | 9,590 | 9,240 |
| Third Round | 9,930 | 9,580 | 9,640 | 9,290 |
| Fourth Round | 10,030 | 9,680 | 9,740 | 9,390 |
| Quarterfinal | 10,230 | 9,880 | 9,940 | 9,590 |
| Semifinal | 10,630 | 10,280 | 10,340 | 9,990 |
| Final | 11,130 | 10,780 | 10,840 | 10,490 |
| Title | 11,830 | 11,480 | 11,540 | 11,190 |
Alcaraz now knows that if he wins the Cincinnati Open title then he can become world number one if he matches or betters Sinner’s performance at the US Open.
Sinner will firmly be in the driving seat if he wins the Cincinnati Open title, but Alcaraz will be world number one if he wins the US Open title regardless of what else happens.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner: Head-to-head in finals
The Cincinnati Open will be the sixth time that Sinner and Alcaraz have played in a final and fourth this year.
Sinner won their first ever final at the Croatia Open, but since then Alcaraz has got the better of their championship matches.
Perhaps the most memorable of those finals came when Alcaraz fought back to beat Sinner at Roland Garros after saving three championship points.
However, their most recent final saw Sinner beat Alcaraz at Wimbledon to end his winning streak.
| Year | Tournament | Result |
| 2022 | Croatia Open | Sinner beat Alcaraz, 6(5)-7 6-1 6-1 |
| 2024 | China Open | Alcaraz beat Sinner, 6(6)-7 6-4 7-6(3) |
| 2025 | Italian Open | Alcaraz beat Sinner, 7-5(5) 6-1 |
| 2025 | Roland Garros | Alcaraz beat Sinner, 4-6 6(4)-7 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) |
| 2025 | Wimbledon | Sinner beat Alcaraz, 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 |
As well as having the better of Sinner in their meetings in finals, Alcaraz also has the advantage in their head-to-head on hard courts.
Alcaraz will look to continue that and continue his bid to become world number one again when he plays Sinner in the Cincinnati Open final on Monday, August 18.
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