Indian Wells is one of the highlights of the tennis calendar and this season’s tournament should be as entertaining as ever.
Defending champions Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek, household names Novak Djokovic and Aryna Sabalenka and American stars Coco Gauff and Taylor Fritz are all in the mix.
The first leg of the Sunshine Double is shaping up to be the best event of 2025 so far, with plenty at stake from prize money to ranking points.
There are so many questions ahead of Indian Wells, also known as the ‘fifth Grand Slam’, and The Tennis Gazette’s writers have shared their predictions.
Indian Wells Men’s Singles Predictions
Winner
Matthew Johns: It is really hard to look past Alcaraz, with the Spaniard winning the Indian Wells title for the past two years. Only Roger Federer and Djokovic have won three in a row, but if anyone can replicate them, then Alcaraz seems a likely candidate as any.
Lee Clarke: Carlos Alcaraz. The Spaniard should have a spring in his step with his main rival currently out of action through suspension and having won the last two here, he will take some stopping.
Peter Lynch: Despite his recent issues around injury and form, I think Djokovic will finally clinch that elusive 100th ATP title, spurred on by that challenge and his previous Indian Wells success.
Best American
Matthew Johns: There are a lot of question marks over Taylor Fritz given his recent form and injury concerns. However, the Californian loves this tournament as a former champion and his draw should help him work his way into the bigger matches.
Lee Clarke: I will go for Ben Shelton. He’s progressing nicely at the moment and I firmly believe he’s going to win a Grand Slam title at some point during his career.
Peter Lynch: Shelton’s profile continues to rise, and it looks like he is the man capable of going the furthest in terms of the American men on home soil.
Outside Chance
Matthew Johns: Felix Auger-Aliassime has been hugely impressive so far this season and will likely be a big threat to upset the odds at Indian Wells. My other potential dark horse would be Jack Draper, who could play Auger-Aliassime in the third round for what would be a blockbuster encounter.
Lee Clarke: The smart money sits on Joao Fonseca and I’m not about to ignore the smart money either. He’s another player who has started the season extremely well and looks a real leading light for the future.
Peter Lynch: It’s hard to look past Joao Fonseca here, with the 18-year-old Brazilian having taken the ATP Tour by storm in recent times. But keep an eye out for fellow wildcard and fellow 2024 NextGen ATP finalist Learner Tien.
How will Novak Djokovic fare?
Matthew Johns: It is really hard to know what Djokovic will do at Indian Wells, after some concerning scenes of him limping at the Doha airport. He suffered a shock early exit at Indian Wells last year and seems susceptible to it happening again.
Lee Clarke: Well, talking of smart money, he’s in the same quarter of the draw as Alcaraz so the easy prediction is to say the last eight. However, this is a tough tournament for the Serb to return at so my outside bet is for Djokovic to lose at some point before the quarters.
Peter Lynch: I think Djokovic has what it takes to go all the way, but Alcaraz will be very hard to beat as he seeks a third successive title.
Will court surface change affect Carlos Alcaraz?
Matthew Johns: Alcaraz clearly loves the conditions at Indian Wells, and although the courts are changing somewhat I can’t see it being too much of an issue. Alcaraz does sometimes struggle on faster hard courts, but the dry conditions at Indian Wells should keep the matches at a pace he is comfortable with.
Lee Clarke: I don’t think it will make too much impact in fairness. Alcaraz has proved before that he can adapt to tricky situations and he has a number of strings to his bow that should ensure he stays in top form.
Peter Lynch: Alcaraz has proven time and again that he is capable of winning on different surfaces, so I can’t see this change impacting him that much, with another strong run incoming.
Indian Wells Women’s Singles Predictions
Winner
Matthew Johns: Like in the men’s draw, I have gone with a somewhat boring answer of the defending champion doing just that. Like Alcaraz, Iga Swiatek loves the conditions at Indian Wells and will want to continue to mark her territory at one of the biggest events of the year.
Lee Clarke: Coco Gauff. It’s about time things clicked for the woman who has been lauded by Serena Williams previously. She simply has to come good at some point this year and it could well start in California.
Peter Lynch: Swiatek is starting to show signs of a return to form, and I think she can go all the way at Indian Wells and successfully defend her title from last time out.
Best American
Matthew Johns: American women’s tennis is in a really good place right now, with three women currently ranked inside the top five. I can really see Madison Keys continuing her momentum on from the Australian Open here, with her draw enabling her to build her way into the tournament. Watch out for Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro as well, with both players coming off the back of winning titles last week. Despite being the American number one, Gauff appears to be the most vulnerable out of the top four US players at the moment.
Lee Clarke: See above, really. I also fancy Pegula to go far after her fine form in the ATX Open.
Peter Lynch: Gauff needs a strong run to get back on track, but I think recent WTA champion Pegula will represent the US women the best at Indian Wells.
Outside Chance
Matthew Johns: There is so much depth on the WTA Tour, so a dark horse could come from literally anywhere. If feeling healthy, Karolina Muchova is always going to be a threat. Another potential dark horse, which given her recent form maybe a rogue one, is Maria Sakkari. Sakkari has had a really tough start to the year, but has an incredibly impressive record at Indian Wells as a two-time finalist.
Lee Clarke: Ons Jabeur. Why not? She has reached big finals previously in her career and I do feel she will catch light at some point following her comeback to tennis. This could be the tournament.
Peter Lynch: My dark horse is Amanda Anisimova, who should be full of confidence on home soil thanks to her recent Qatar Open title.
How will Madison Keys fare?
Matthew Johns: I think it was a really sensible decision from Keys to miss the Middle Eastern swing and take some time away from the match court following her Australian Open win. This should put her in good stead to impress at Indian Wells, and if she plays the same way that she did in Melbourne it is hard to see anyone stopping her.
Lee Clarke: I think she will do alright to be honest. She’s clearly in fine form so I will hazard a guess at the semi-finals with no sign of a hangover from the Australian Open.
Peter Lynch: Keys hasn’t played any tournaments since her superb Australian Open run, which I think could be a negative. A deep run can be expected, but I don’t think it will end with another trophy.
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