The ATP Finals are finally here! The Tennis Gazette writers have made some bold predictions for the event.
Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal from the tournament has shaken things up, but all the other top players will still compete in Turin.
Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are the two favorites, but there is more than enough depth in the draw to cause an upset.
Here are four key predictions for the ATP Finals, including the winner and the biggest underachievers.
ATP Finals 2025 predictions
Who will win the ATP Finals?
Matthew Johns: Jannik Sinner has to be my pick to win the ATP Finals this year, as he is the defending champion and seems almost unbeatable on indoor hard courts. The draw has convinced me even more, and I fully expect Sinner to go unbeaten all the way!
George Patten: It’s hard to bet against Jannik Sinner winning the 2025 ATP Finals, given the form he’s shown on indoor hard courts recently. Picking up titles in Vienna and Paris, the Italian has looked unstoppable on the surface and is undoubtedly the favorite to lift the trophy in Turin once more.
Lee Clarke: Probably Jannik Sinner. He has shown the fewest signs of fatigue and looks to be on a bit of a roll at the moment.
Peter Lynch: It’s safe… but sensible! I can see new world number one Jannik Sinner continuing his momentum and successfully defending his title in Turin. The hard indoor surface and home support are the perfect mix!
How far will Carlos Alcaraz go?
Matthew Johns: Carlos Alcaraz has struggled previously at the ATP Finals, and his result in Paris showed that he still has a lot of work to do on indoor hard courts. However, that being said, I still expect him to qualify from his group and at least do enough to return to the world number one ranking.
George Patten: Carlos Alcaraz suffered a disappointing defeat to Cameron Norrie last time out in Paris, leading many to question where his game is at going into the tour finals. The world number two will no doubt bounce back in Turin, but on his least favorite surface, he could struggle to go much further than the semifinals.
Lee Clarke: Alcaraz will probably get to the final. The groups don’t leave much to the imagination in that sense, and I anticipate he will win all three matches.
Peter Lynch: Continuing the sensible theme, I can only see Carlos Alcaraz reaching the final from his half of the draw. Yet another Sinner-Alcaraz final looks very likely.
Biggest underachievers at the ATP Finals
Matthew Johns: I think Alexander Zverev could struggle at the ATP Finals this year, despite being a two-time former champion. Zverev has shown that he is vulnerable all year round, and I could even see him losing every group match.
George Patten: Expectations are high for Taylor Fritz heading into Turin, and the pressure is on, as he tries to defend his finalist’s points from a year ago. He was far from his best in defeat to Alexander Bublik at the Paris Masters, and if he plays like that in the ‘Jimmy Connors Group’, he could be in real trouble.
Peter Lynch: There will be added pressure on the Americans to perform amid more dominance from Europeans, and I think Taylor Fritz could fail to live up to expectations in Turin.
Dark horse to win the ATP Finals
George Patten: Felix Auger-Aliassime could be one to watch out for in Turin. He is well-rested, thanks to his Moselle Open withdrawal, and the indoor hard court specialist has the potential to cause some real problems at the 2025 ATP Finals.
Lee Clarke: Alexander Zverev. No idea why, really, other than he does have the game to beat the big players if everything clicks into place. It probably won’t be given how well Sinner is playing, but you just never know.
Peter Lynch: Now that Felix Auger-Aliassime has claimed a spot at the ATP Finals, I’m backing him to enjoy a very successful run in Italy.
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