The US Open is almost here as the top ATP and WTA players meet for the final Grand Slam of 2024, so our expert writers at The Tennis Gazette predict every key storyline.
Headlines are sure to be made at Flushing Meadows across two weeks on the hardcourts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Some headlines were even made ahead of play starting with ATP world No1 Jannik Sinner escaping any ban for two failed doping tests.
Sinner will now head to New York striving to win the second Grand Slam title of the 23-year-old’s career. He has never previously progressed beyond the quarter-finals at a US Open but victory at the Australian Open earlier this year delivered the first Grand Slam title to his feet.
It was US Open title number four for Novak Djokovic in 2023 as the Serbian swept the men’s singles tournament. Coco Gauff also won her first Grand Slam title on home soil last time at the US Open as the WTA world No3 came back to beat No2 Aryna Sabalenka 2-6, 6-3, 6-2.
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Gauff will be one of the major favorites for home success at the 2024 US Open, as well. But her form going into this year’s tournament leaves a lot to the imagination. The 20-year-old lost in the last 32 at the Cincinnati Masters and has not made a singles final since January.
So, with that in mind, our expert writers at The Tennis Gazette have predicted each of the major storylines to follow at the 2024 US Open, including who the best American will be…
Men’s 2024 US Open singles champion
Jerome Coombe: “Despite Novak Djokovic essentially completing tennis this year by adding Olympic gold to his resume, he is still tied with the great Margaret Court on 24 Grand Slam titles. So, for me, this is enough motivation for the Serbian to go all-out in the hunt for that 25th crown and break away from the rest, as he is so used to doing.”
Peter Lynch: “Even with his ongoing controversy, I’m backing the in-form Jannik Sinner to lift his second Grand Slam title at the US Open, having won his one and only major title on the hard courts of the Australian Open earlier this year.”
Lee Clarke: “Arise Sir Carlos Alcaraz. Novak Djokovic is going to do the unthinkable and go the calendar year without a major title. He can take solace from an Olympic gold medal, whilst the Spanish sensation dances off with his third Grand Slam of the year.”
Callum Davies: “I think Alexander Zverev, a superb player across all courts, will finally put all his previous heartache behind him to win his first Grand Slam title at the US Open.
“Having reached the final in 2020, losing to Dominic Thiem, that has represented Zverev’s best opportunity thus far. But, with a completely unpredictable field, he could easily fly under the radar and sneak the title from out under the main favorites.”
Sammy France: “The men’s draw certainly feels like it has opened up recently with many of the main contenders struggling for form. Carlos Alcaraz’s lack of time on the hard courts and blow-up against Gael Monfils in Cincinnati perhaps hampers his chances.
“Last year’s finalist Daniil Medvedev can’t seem to buy a win at the moment. While Jannik Sinner won in Cincinnati, Novak Djokovic’s name just isn’t leaving my head – I think the Serb is set to win his 25th major.”
Liam Llewellyn: “Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are the frontrunners for the men’s US Open title. But Alcaraz will be even more fired up and motivated to claim the title after missing out on the Olympic gold medal and losing early in Cincinnati. He feels he has a point to prove, so I think Alcaraz takes it.”
Women’s 2024 US Open singles champion
Jerome Coombe: “It was only a matter of time before Aryna Sabalenka rejoined the winner’s circle again with an emphatic rout of the Cincinnati field, making the adjustment to the super quick courts as if it was light work. She is now dialed in and I can’t see past her avenging the disappointment of last year’s final.”
Peter Lynch: “With five different winners in the last five years, I’m backing Aryna Sabalenka to continue that trend and continue her superb hard-court form with a US Open win.”
Lee Clarke: “After beating Iga Swiatek in Toronto, Belarussian Aryna Sabalenka has fire in her belly and after missing Wimbledon through injury, the US Open is her moment to make up for lost time and land another major.”
Callum Davies: “It’s hard to look past Aryna Sabalenka for the women’s title at the 2024 US Open, as another who has lost in the final of this event just last year.”
“A hard-hitting, hard-court specialist who – when on form – is simply unstoppable on this surface, Sabalenka’s stellar performances at the Cincinnati Open, including a much-needed win over Iga Swiatek, prove that she is back to full fitness and firing once again.”
Sammy France: “Defending champion Coco Gauff seems all over the place at the moment with two shock defeats in the last fortnight. After last year’s Washington and Cincinnati double, she was set up perfectly for glory in New York.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if teenager Mirra Andreeva forges another deep run at a major. However, with Aryna Sabalenka looking back to her best and having thrashed Iga Swiatek in the semi-final in Cincinnati, she looks set to go one better than last year and win the title.”
Liam Llewellyn: “She has only recently returned to the tour after injury but Aryna Sabalenka won the Cincinnati Open without dropping a set and looked back to her best. She was very close to winning the US Open last year, so I think Sabalenka is in a good place to go one step further in 2024.”
Who will be the top American player at the 2024 US Open?
Jerome Coombe: “Overall, I think that this US Open will be a summary of the impressive resurgence in American tennis that we have witnessed over the years. Emma Navarro, Frances Tiafoe, Taylor Fritz, and Tommy Paul will all go far, but Danielle Collins will be the standout American performer.”
Peter Lynch: “American stars are shining brightly across the men’s and women’s game, with France Tiafoe getting my vote for the US player to make it the furthest at Flushing Meadows after his fantastic run in Cincinnati.”
Lee Clarke: “Frances Tiafoe looks revived and could go deep at the US Open after a good run at Cincinnati. As for the women, Danielle Collins will play in a major for the final time. Could she cause a bit of a shock?”
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Callum Davies: “Although she may have departed Cincinnati early, I’m backing Emma Navarro to enjoy another strong showing at the US Open, especially after her admirable performances in Toronto the week earlier.
“Reaching the quarter-finals of Wimbledon marked a career-best for the 23-year-old. But I think she has another round in her in New York, backed by a crowd that will love rooting for the underdog American.”
Sammy France: “With 10 male and female players in the top 20s of the rankings, there is plenty to choose from this year. With Emma Navarro’s recent and steady rise in form this year, I wouldn’t be surprised if she goes slightly under the radar and reaches the latter stages of the draw at the 2024 US Open”.
Liam Llewellyn: “Several of America’s top male players are evenly matched and some had a strong showing at the 2023 US Open. But Frances Tiafoe discovered his confidence after making the Cincinnati final and he thrives on the big stage, especially on home soil.
“So, I see Tiafoe having a great tournament, though Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz will be right there as well at the US Open. On the women’s side, given her form over the last two events, surely this is the time for Jessica Pegula to break her Grand Slam quarter-final losing streak and reach the last four!”
The breakout player to watch out for at the 2024 US Open
Jerome Coombe: “This one might be a bit of a cheat, as she has already broken through. But Mirra Andreeva will take Flushing Meadows by storm, slipping and sliding her way into the quarter-finals.”
Peter Lynch: “I really think Jordan Thompson can get past his physical struggles from Cincinnati and enjoy a lengthy stay in New York as the tournament’s breakout player.”
Lee Clarke: “This is Seb Korda’s time. He’s never been beyond round two at the US Open and for a player of his quality, that simply won’t do. His rotten run stops here.”
Callum Davies: “Although he has very much already ‘broken through’, I still think Jakub Mensik could enjoy a strong run in New York, fresh from winning the gold medal in Paris in the mixed doubles.
“Having reached the third round last year, since then he has only gone from strength to strength, even reaching his first-ever ATP final this year, too.
“Taking Hubert Hurkacz to five sets in Melbourne earlier in the year is a testament to his talents on the hard courts, as well.”
Sammy France: “She’s already smartly moved up the rankings this year and managed to win an Olympic silver medal. Russia’s Diana Shnaider thrashed Coco Gauff in Toronto and I suspect this won’t be the last top player she takes out this year. A superb college player, Shnaider’s trademark polka-dot headscarf will be turning heads at the US Open.”
Liam Llewellyn: “Though she has already made a Grand Slam semi-final, Amanda Anisimova has never gone beyond the third round at the US Open. The 22-year-old showed what she is capable of by reaching the Canadian Open final and her power can cause plenty of problems in New York.”
Who will struggle the most at the 2024 US Open?
Jerome Coombe: “Sadly, the doubts have been raised and I am not sure if Coco Gauff is at a place where she can overcome all of this pressure. This run-in to the US Open is poles apart from the form that propelled her to glory 12 months ago, and I think the controversial loss Gauff suffered at the Olympics appears to have festered.”
Peter Lynch: “Stefanos Tsitsipas just hasn’t been consistent enough in 2024, and I think he’ll struggle to get any real momentum at Flushing Meadows.”
Lee Clarke: “For whatever reason, there just seems to be something amiss with Greek performer Stefanos Tsitsipas at the majors and I don’t see that improving here.”
Callum Davies: “I think this is going to be a really tough tournament for Carlos Alcaraz, who has already admitted to disliking the conditions of the courts in Cincinnati.
“By all accounts, New York will not be too dissimilar and the Spaniard admitted it felt like he was playing a different sport with the speed of the balls.
“Fresh from a grueling summer, in which he won Roland Garros, Wimbledon and a silver medal at the Olympics, this could be the event where the youngster burns out.”
Sammy France: “It might be curtains for Ben Shelton slightly earlier than he would’ve dreamed. Despite success last year when he reached the semi-finals, I think it may all come crashing down for the youngster this time around.”
Liam Llewellyn: “Stefanos Tsitsipas has failed to go beyond the third round at the US Open and given the significant change to his coaching team and poor results in Canada and Cincinnati, I do not expect him to improve on his best result at Flushing Meadows in 2024.”
How far will defending women’s champion Coco Gauff go at the 2024 US Open?
Jerome Coombe: “I think the best that Coco Gauff will achieve is the second round.”
Peter Lynch: “Coco Gauff should be in high spirits as the defending champion but winning two US Open titles in a row is no mean feat. I think she’ll fall just short in that endeavor and drop out in the semi-finals.”
Lee Clarke: “I expect a strong showing from the American number one and could see Coco Gauff reaching the last four at the very least.”
Callum Davies: “Coco Gauff is not going into the US Open in sparkling form but she remains the defending champion, and that counts for something.
“The rising star and flag-bearer for US tennis, both metaphorically and literally after the Olympics, I would still expect an admirable showing from the 21-year-old.
“However, the quarter-finals could be where her journey ends, perhaps tripped up by an energetic lesser-known opponent who is enjoying a fairytale run.”
Sammy France: “Coco Gauff’s title last year was truly remarkable and came after a magnificent season. This year, with no such joy on the hard courts yet, I think Gauff will be lucky to reach the last eight.”
Liam Llewellyn: “There is plenty of scrutiny around Coco Gauff and her form given her shocking defeats of late. She will enter the tournament following successive losses, but despite that I expect her to find her form.
“However, I do not think it will be enough to defend the title and I see her run ending in either the quarter-finals or the final four.”
How far will home hero Taylor Fritz go at the 2024 US Open?
Jerome Coombe: “An impressive run is on the horizon for Taylor Fritz but not impressive enough to emulate his form at the back end of 2023. Fritz has had a fairly routine season by his standards, though he will be disappointed by his North American swing thus far.
“I can see him bouncing back for a fourth-round finish, but the caliber of opposition seems too strong for anything deeper.”
Peter Lynch: “Taylor Fritz has had a mixed season and, unfortunately, heads into his home Grand Slam in poor form, which may result in him making the quarter-finals and no further.”
Lee Clarke: “The safe money is the quarter-final considering Taylor Fritz has never been to the last four of a major. I don’t think that will change here, so will say the last eight again.”
Callum Davies: “Taylor Fritz is another player who is hardly excelling as he returns to New York and, as the number-one-rated American male, much will be expected of him.
“Unfortunately, I think he will not stand up to the pressure on this particular occasion with the likes of Ben Shelton and Tommy Paul surpassing him. Still, a run to the fourth round would be a solid showing, given Fritz has only ever reached that stage once before.”
Sammy France: “With a dodgy run of form so far in North America, and after being swamped by controversy in Cincinnati, Taylor Fritz is in need of a good run in New York. Unfortunately, I have a nagging feeling that the American might succumb to an early upset.”
Liam Llewellyn: “Taylor Fritz has struggled to replicate his best form since Wimbledon. Early losses in Canada and Cincinnati came as a surprise but if there is any hangover from the Olympic Games, he will need to shake it off before competing at his home Slam.
“He has never gone beyond the quarter-finals of a major and I don’t expect Fritz will go further than that at this year’s US Open.”
How far will Novak Djokovic go on his return at the US Open?
Question marks hang over reigning men’s singles champion Novak Djokovic before the 2024 US Open begins. The Serbian has seldom played in recent months after requiring surgery on his knee owing to the torn meniscus that the Serbian sustained at the French Open in May.
Djokovic has only appeared at Wimbledon and the Olympic Games in Paris since undergoing the operation. But the world No2 beat Carlos Alcaraz to win the gold medal at the Olympics before Djokovic skipped the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open to be set for the US Open.
Grand Slam title number 25 may now await Djokovic as he bids to level Jimmy Connors, Pete Sampras and Roger Federer as five-time US Open men’s singles winners in the open era. But not all of our writers at The Tennis Gazette predict a good time for Djokovic at the US Open.
Jerome Coombe: “I predict Novak Djokovic will be the 2024 US Open men’s champion.”
Peter Lynch: “I really didn’t imagine Novak Djokovic would recover from his knee injury in time to shine at Wimbledon and the Olympics, but here we are. The Serbian will once again be in the mix for the US Open title, but I think he’ll fall just short and lose the final.”
Lee Clarke: “The safe money says the 2024 US Open final for Novak Djokovic. However, I’m not playing it safe here. I’ll predict a shock five-set defeat for the Serb at some point before the semi-finals.”
Callum Davies: “Novak Djokovic is an impossible man to predict this season given his patchy form and constant injury battles. But, after winning the Olympics, he proved that anything really is possible.
“However, despite the desperation he will feel as Djokovic seeks to finally claim his record-breaking 25th Grand Slam, I don’t think it’ll push him onto success like it did in Paris. Instead, I think he’ll fall at the semi-finals, which would still mark an admirable return.”
Sammy France: “We’ve barely seen the Olympic champion since Novak Djokovic clinched gold in Paris. With no knee brace on and the courts playing slightly slower, I think we are going to see some history made in New York and a historic 25th major title.”
Liam Llewellyn: “Djokovic is on a mission to win a record 25th Grand Slam title. He will have the confidence following his Olympics win and the motivation to claim yet another record.
“That being said, Carlos Alcaraz now seems to have his number at majors and if they clash in the semi-finals, I think the Serbian will just come up short.”
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