Why Naomi Osaka could be a favorite to beat Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff to the Australian Open title

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Naomi Osaka stormed back to life at the end of 2025, and could be one to look out for at next year’s Australian Open…

The four-time Grand Slam champion made a bold coaching move in the summer, as Osaka replaced Patrick Mouratoglou with Tomasz Wiktorowski.

Immediately finding success with the Pole, Osaka reached the final of the Canadian Open and the semifinals of the US Open, her best results in years.

If she can rediscover that form in January, she could well be a favorite to win the Australian Open.

Why Naomi Osaka may be a favorite in Melbourne

Osaka last won a Grand Slam in 2021, when she lifted the second of her two Australian Open titles.

Naomi Osaka’s Grand Slam performance timeline

The Japanese star certainly knows her way around Rod Laver Arena, and looks set to challenge for a third title in 2026.

She won’t have it easy, though, with the likes of Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, and Coco Gauff leading the way.

Like Osaka, Sabalenka is a two-time Australian Open champion, and will return in 2026 with a point to prove, after losing this year’s final to Madison Keys.

Active WTA players with multiple Australian Open titles

• Aryna Sabalenka – 2 (2023, 2024)
• Naomi Osaka – 2 (2019, 2021)
• Victoria Azarenka – 2 (2012, 2013)

Swiatek will also be motivated to win in Melbourne, as she is now just an Australian Open title away from completing the Career Grand Slam.

Two-time major winner Gauff will be another to look out for, although her title chances will likely depend on if she has fixed her serve over the off-season.

With all that being said, Osaka deserves to be in the ‘favorites’ conversation, especially after seeing the level she produced in New York a few months back.

Osaka made her way through the draw without too much difficulty, qualifying for just her fifth career Grand Slam semifinal.

Naomi Osaka at the 2025 US Open

• 2025 US Open 1R – Naomi Osaka defeated Greet Minnen, 6-3, 6-4
• 2025 US Open 2R – Naomi Osaka defeated Hailey Baptiste, 6-3, 6-1
• 2025 US Open 3R – Naomi Osaka defeated Daria Kasatkina, 6-0, 4-6, 6-3
• 2025 US Open 4R – Naomi Osaka defeated Coco Gauff, 6-3, 6-2
• 2025 US Open QF – Naomi Osaka defeated Karolina Muchova, 6-4, 7-6

Advancing to the semis, Osaka took on Amanda Anisimova, the Wimbledon runner-up.

In one of the most dramatic matches of 2025, Osaka lost to Anisimova 7-6, 6-7, 3-6, as she failed in her bid to reach the final.

It’s now up to Osaka to use that defeat as motivation for Melbourne, where she has a great chance to win her fifth major.

Where did Naomi Osaka finish 2025 in the world rankings?

Thanks to her strong end-of-season form, Osaka finished 2025 with her best year-end ranking since 2021.

The Japanese star is ranked 16th in the world, and could jump back into the top 10 with a title down under.

WTA 2025 year-end rankings

She currently trails world number 10 Ekaterina Alexandrova by 888 points.

A run to the final or a title at the Australian Open would see Osaka return to the top 10 for the first time since 2021.

Only time will tell how Osaka will perform in Melbourne next year, but you certainly won’t want to miss any of the action.

The 2026 Australian Open is scheduled to begin on Sunday, January 18.