Iga Swiatek survived a scare to reach the fourth round of the Australian Open.
After winning the first set against Anna Kalinskaya 6-1, Swiatek’s level dropped dramatically.
Kalinskaya levelled the match at 1-6, 6-1, threatening to cause an upset on Margaret Court Arena.
Regaining her composure, Swiatek won in three sets, 6-1, 1-6, 6-1, to secure her spot in the last 16.
Were the Australian Open wrong to allow Jannik Sinner time off court when he was cramping?
Many fans expected the Pole to meet four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka in the fourth round.
Instead, she’ll play the world number 168, Maddison Inglis.
With all due respect to Inglis, Swiatek now has a far better chance of advancing, thanks to Osaka’s last-minute withdrawal.
Iga Swiatek has her Australian Open title chances boosted by Naomi Osaka’s withdrawal
Swiatek hasn’t looked entirely convincing at the 2026 Australian Open so far.
The world number two had to work hard for her first-round win over Yue Yuan and was below par in the third round against Kalinskaya.
Watching those performances, you wouldn’t have been quick to bet on her beating Osaka, a two-time Australian Open champion, in the fourth round.
Admittedly, this version of Osaka isn’t the one who won titles down under in 2019 and 2021, but she’s no slouch either.
She defeated Coco Gauff en route to the semifinals of the US Open in her last Grand Slam outing.
Iga Swiatek and Naomi Osaka’s head-to-head record
| Match | Winner | Loser | Score |
| 2024 French Open – 2R | Iga Swiatek | Naomi Osaka | 7-6, 1-6, 7-5 |
| 2022 Miami Open – F | Iga Swiatek | Naomi Osaka | 6-4, 6-0 |
| 2019 Canadian Open – 3R | Naomi Osaka | Iga Swiatek | 7-6, 6-4 |
It’s impossible to predict if she would have beaten Swiatek, and now we will never know.
Just before her third-round match against Inglis, Osaka withdrew from the Australian Open due to injury.
“It’s an injury I’ve had a couple of times before, and I thought I could push through it,” Osaka said in a press conference.
“I played my last match with some pain, and I thought maybe if I gave myself a break before my match today, I would be able to handle it, but I warmed up, and it got a lot worse, so yeah.”
How far do you think Osaka could have got without injury at the Australian Open?
On paper, Swiatek now has a much easier fourth-round opponent, boosting her chances of reaching the quarterfinals.
Great news for the Pole, who continues her search for the Career Grand Slam.
Who stands between Iga Swiatek and the Career Grand Slam?
Swiatek has won three of the four major titles, but has yet to lift the Australian Open trophy.
- 2020 French Open
- 2022 French Open (2)
- 2022 US Open
- 2023 French Open (3)
- 2024 French Open (4)
- 2025 Wimbledon
She is now just four wins away from completing the Career Grand Slam, but who will she need to beat in Melbourne?
| Round | Highest-ranked potential opponent | Potential seeded opponents | Potential unseeded opponents |
| 4R | Maddison Inglis (168) | – | Maddison Inglis |
| QF | Elena Rybakina (5) | Elena Rybakina [5], Eliser Mertens [21] | – |
| SF | Amanda Anisimova (4) | Amanda Anisimova [4], Jessica Pegula [6], Madison Keys [9] | Wang Xinyu |
| F | Aryna Sabalenka (1) | Aryna Sabalenka [1], Coco Gauff [3], Mirra Andreeva [8], Elina Svitolina [12], Victoria Mboko [17], Karolina Muchova [19], Iva Jovic [29] | Yulia Putintseva |
If Swiatek were to advance past Inglis as expected, she could meet Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals.
Swiatek leads their head-to-head 6-5, but lost their most recent match, at the 2025 WTA Finals, a tournament Rybakina won.
A whole host of top American stars could then await her in the semifinals.
Amanda Anisimova, Jessica Pegula, and Madison Keys are all lurking in the bottom half of the draw.
Swiatek would undoubtedly love a rematch with Keys after losing their semifinal match a year ago.
Then, should both players make their way through to the final, Aryna Sabalenka and Swiatek could contest a Grand Slam championship match for the first time.
They have dominated women’s tennis over recent years, but have yet to play each other in a major final.
What better place to change that than on Rod Laver Arena later this month?
Swiatek won’t want to get ahead of herself thinking about the final just yet, though, as she now focuses on her fourth-round match.
She’ll play Inglis with a place in the quarterfinals up for grabs on Monday, January 26.
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