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Tim Henman predicts the big change Carlos Alcaraz is going to make when he faces Jannik Sinner in the Italian Open final

Split image of Carlos Alcaraz celebrating after beating Lorenzo Musetti at the 2025 Italian Open, image of Jannik Sinner celebrating winning a poin...
Credit: Getty Images/MARCO BERTORELLO/AFP/Giuseppe Maffia/NurPhoto/Matthew Stockman
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Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will face off for an 11th time in Sunday’s Italian Open final.

Spanish star Alcaraz beat Lorenzo Musetti in straight sets, 6-3, 7-6, to advance to his maiden final in Rome.

He’ll be joined by Sinner, who beat Tommy Paul in the second semi-final, 1-6, 6-0, 6-3.

Jannik Sinner grimaces against Tommy Paul at the 2025 Italian Open
Photo by Giuseppe Maffia/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The pair will face off in a ‘big final’ for the first time at the Italian Open, having never previously contested a final above the ATP 500 level.

With a lot at stake, one former ATP star has predicted Alcaraz will make a big ‘change’ ahead of the final.

Tim Henman thinks Carlos Alcaraz will be more ‘focused’ against Jannik Sinner in the Rome final

World number three Alcaraz was warned about his lapses in concentration after his semi-final win over Musetti earlier on Friday.

The Spaniard looked to be in total control after the first set, but hit 39 unforced errors, allowing his Italian opponent back into the match.

Former British star Tim Henman noticed the issue, but told Sky Sports he doesn’t think it’ll be a problem when he takes on Sinner in the final.

“I think when you reflect on [Carlos] Alcaraz, his concentration has been average, and I think that is because he has felt pretty comfortable against his opponents, with all due respect,” he said.

“Against [Jannik] Sinner, I expect him to have that focus and clarity of thought to say I cannot afford these lapses, dips in concentration, and poor shot selections.

“So I want to see them at their best going head to head in a big final.”

Tim Henman holding a microphone at the 2021 US Open tournament
Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

The former world number four complimented Sinner for how he had maintained concentration during his dominant quarterfinal win.

“I think that is where I reflect on Sinner’s match against Casper Ruud,” said Henman.

“He had so much respect for his opponent. That is why his concentration and intensity were so good.”

Sinner beat Ruud, 6-0, 6-1, in one of the most impressive performances of the year, dismantling the Madrid Open champion in straight sets.

It’s tough to judge which of the pair is the favorite for the final, but the head-to-head certainly leans in one direction.

MatchWinner LoserScore
2024 China Open – FCarlos AlcarazJannik Sinner6-7, 6-4, 7-6
2024 French Open – SFCarlos AlcarazJannik Sinner2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3
2024 Indian Wells – SFCarlos AlcarazJannik Sinner1-6, 6-3, 6-2
2023 China Open – SFJannik SinnerCarlos Alcaraz7-6, 6-1
2023 Miami Open – SFJannik SinnerCarlos Alcaraz6-7, 6-4, 6-2
2023 Indian Wells – SFCarlos AlcarazJannik Sinner7-6, 6-3
2022 US Open – QFCarlos AlcarazJannik Sinner6-3, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5, 6-3
2022 Croatia Open – FJannik SinnerCarlos Alcaraz6-7, 6-1, 6-1
2022 Wimbledon – 4RJannik SinnerCarlos Alcaraz6-1, 6-4, 6-7, 6-3
2021 Paris Masters – 2RCarlos AlcarazJannik Sinner7-6, 7-5
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner’s head-to-head record

Alcaraz has won six of their ten meetings, last losing to Sinner, 591 days ago at the China Open.

Only time will tell if he can stay concentrated and pick up win number seven at Stadio Centrale on Sunday.

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz’s record in finals

Both Alcaraz and Sinner have contested 24 finals during their time on the ATP Tour, and hold very similar records.

Sinner has a slight edge overall, but it’s Alcaraz who’s been more prolific in Masters 1000 finals, losing just one of his seven finals at the level.

FinalOpponentResultScore
2025 Monte-CarloLorenzo MusettiWin3-6, 6-1, 6-0
2024 Indian WellsDaniil MedvedevWin7-6, 6-1
2023 CincinattiNovak DjokovicLoss7-5, 6-7, 6-7
2023 MadridJan-Lennard StruffWin6-4, 3-6, 6-3
2023 Indian WellsDaniil MedvedevWin6-3, 6-2
2022 MadridAlexander ZverevWin6-3, 6-1
2022 MiamiCasper RuudWin7-5, 6-4
Carlos Alcaraz’s record in Masters 1000 finals

Alcaraz’s defeat to Novak Djokovic in a Cincinnati thriller two years ago was his sole loss in a Masters 1000 final.

Sinner, on the other hand, struggled in his first two Masters series finals, losing the Miami Open final in both 2021 and 2023, before winning his next four.

FinalOpponentResultScore
2024 ShanghaiNovak DjokovicWin7-6, 6-3
2024 CincinnatiFrances TiafoeWin7-6, 6-2
2024 MiamiGrigor DimitrovWin6-3, 6-1
2024 CanadaAlex de MinaurWin6-4, 6-1
2023 MiamiDaniil MedvedevLoss5-7, 3-6
2021 MiamiHubert HurkaczLoss6-7, 4-6
Jannik Sinner’s record in Masters 1000 finals

It remains to be seen who will come out on top this time around, as both players look to add the Italian Open title to their ever-growing trophy cabinets.

Sinner and Alcaraz will face off in the Italian Open final on Sunday, May 18.