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The change Tommy Paul made to beat Kei Nishikori at the Australian Open after seeing ‘really bad’ stat during the match

Photo by MARTIN KEEP/AFP via Getty Images
Photo by MARTIN KEEP/AFP via Getty Images
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Tommy Paul is looking for another huge Slam performance at the Australian Open.

In an era full of American ATP stars, none have performed better down under than the 27-year-old New Jerseyan.

Paul reached the semi-finals of the 2023 Australian Open, losing to Novak Djokovic in straight sets.

2023 Australian Open - Day 12
Photo by Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

Things got off to a shaky start for the world number 11 in Melbourne, as Paul was taken to a deciding set in the first round by home favorite Christopher O’Connell.

He eventually came through a 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7, 7-5, winner, booking his spot in the second round where he took on Japan’s Kei Nishikori.

Nishikori had himself won in five sets, in the Australian Open first-round, as he battled past Thiago Monteiro, having faced match point.

Paul was able to beat Nishikori and secure his spot in the last 32, but he didn’t have things all his own way during the match.

Tommy Paul saw ‘really bad’ second serve stats before beating Kei Nishikori at the Australian Open

Speaking in his post-match press conference, Paul explained what Nishikori was doing well during their match, as he took a one set lead.

“I think Kei [Nishikori] played at a very, very fast speed, he was controlling the points, and when he was doing that, he was controlling the match,” he said.

2025 Adelaide International: Previews
Photo by Sarah Reed/Getty Images

“He was winning all those points, so I tried to do everything I could to get out of defence.

“After the first set, I looked at the stats and saw that my second serve points won was really bad because he was attacking so well on my second serve.

“I had to get my first-serve percentage up.

“Those were the main things I was focusing on.”

Paul won just 23% of his second serve points during the first set, as Nishikori won the tiebreaker 7-6.

The Japanese star had played an excellent set of tennis that reminded Paul and the rest of the tennis world just how good he can be.

2025 Australian Open - Day 4
Photo by Shi Tang/Getty Images

“I think at points in the match he was playing super well,” he said.

“I don’t know how I’m going to put a number next to it, but he was playing at top-level tennis for some games.”

Having dropped the first set, Paul quickly turned things around in the second, winning 6-0, before his Japanese opponent found his form again in the third.

TENNIS-AUS-OPEN
Photo by MARTIN KEEP/AFP via Getty Images

“Especially there, like midway through the third set, he made me feel like the pace of my ball was slow,” said Paul.

“He played such fast speed and changed directions a lot, it was difficult to deal with.”

Paul eventually secured the win 6-7, 6-0, 6-3, 6-1, as he advanced to the third round in Australia for the third time in his career.

Is Tommy Paul now the favorite to reach the Australian Open quarter-finals?

Jakub Mensik beat Casper Ruud earlier on Wednesday, leaving Paul as the only remaining seed in his section of the Australian Open draw.

Things are looking good for the American to make a deep run here in Melbourne, but he’s not taking Roberto Carballes Baena lightly by any means.

TENNIS-AUS-OPEN
Photo by MARTIN KEEP/AFP via Getty Images

“I’m going to go back and watch some of his matches,” said Paul.

“I haven’t played him in a long time, I think I’ve only played him once.

“I know he’s a grinder, he’s got a lot of heart, he’s been playing well.

“So I’m looking forward to playing that match.”

Paul lost his only career meeting with Carballes Baena, at the US Open back in 2021, falling in four sets.

Carballes Baena took down seeded Chilean star Alejandro Tabilo in the first round at this year’s Australian Open, before storming into the third round with a win over James Duckworth.

The Spaniard’s contest against Paul will be just his second appearance in the third round of a Grand Slam in 24 appearances, last making it to the round of 32 at the French Open five years ago.

Paul will take on Carballes Baena for a place in the fourth round on Friday, January 17.