Elena Rybakina and Carlos Alcaraz emerged victorious at the first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open.
The Kazakhstani defeated Aryna Sabalenka in three sets before Alcaraz took down Novak Djokovic in four on Rod Laver Arena.
Since then, Rybakina has lost in the Qatar Open quarterfinals and the third round of the Dubai Tennis Championships, while Alcaraz extended his winning streak to 12 matches by claiming the title in Doha.
How do you feel about Carlos Alcaraz’s dominance of men’s tennis right now?
Is it at risk of making the men's game boring?
But how will Rybakina and Alcaraz fare at their next tournament, Indian Wells?
Sam Querrey thinks Carlos Alcaraz is more likely to win Indian Wells than Elena Rybakina
The Tennis Channel analysts were asked the following question.
- “Which Australian Open champion is more likely to win Indian Wells: Carlos Alcaraz or Elena Rybakina?“
Former Wimbledon semifinalist Sam Querrey shared his thoughts.
“Carlos Alcaraz. His only real competition is [Jannik] Sinner, and even that has become more of a question as Alcaraz has considerably raised his level through title runs in Melbourne and Doha.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner in 2026
| Player | Wins | Losses | Win % | Titles | Top 10 wins |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 12 | 0 | 100% | 2 | 3 |
| Jannik Sinner | 7 | 2 | 78% | 0 | 1 |
“On the women’s side, Elena Rybakina is absolutely playing great tennis, but the women’s field is much deeper, so it’s tough to pick her over Carlos in a battle of who is more likely to win.”
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Another former Wimbledon star, 2014 runner-up, Eugenie Bouchard, agreed.
“Carlos Alcaraz. He hasn’t lost a match all year and is making his schedule wisely,” she said.
Carlos Alcaraz’s match wins in 2026
- 1. 2026 Australian Open 1R [WIN] vs Adam Walton, 6-3, 7-6, 6-2
- 2. 2026 Australian Open 2R [WIN] vs Yannick Hanfmann, 7-6, 6-3, 6-2
- 3. 2026 Australian Open 3R [WIN] vs Corentin Moutet, 6-2, 6-4, 6-1
- 4. 2026 Australian Open 4R [WIN] vs Tommy Paul, 7-6, 6-4, 7-5
- 5. 2026 Australian Open QF [WIN] vs Alex de Minaur, 7-5, 6-2, 6-1
- 6. 2026 Australian Open SF [WIN] vs Alexander Zverev, 6-4, 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5
- 7. 2026 Australian Open F [WIN] vs Novak Djokovic, 2-6, 6-2, 6-3, 7-5
- 8. 2026 Qatar Open 1R [WIN] vs Arthur Rinderknech, 6-4, 7-6
- 9. 2026 Qatar Open 2R [WIN] vs Valentin Royer, 6-2, 7-5
- 10. 2026 Qatar Open QF [WIN] vs Karen Khachanov, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3
- 11. 2026 Qatar Open SF [WIN] vs Andrey Rublev, 7-6, 6-4
- 12. 2026 Qatar Open F [WIN] vs Arthur Fils, 6-2, 6-1
“He is winning a lot but should still feel fresh heading into the BNP Paribas Open [Indian Wells].”
Roger Federer’s former coach, Paul Annacone, agreed with Querrey and Bouchard, offering up an explanation for why Alcaraz is so effective at Indian Wells.
“Because of grittier courts, I go Carlos to win his third Indian Wells title over Elena to win her second,” he said.
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“It’s tougher to finish points in Tennis Paradise, and the combination of his superior movement and offensive variety makes him extremely tough to beat in these conditions.”
Annacone mentioned Alcaraz and Rybakina’s previous triumphs in California, but who has the better record?
Carlos Alcaraz and Elena Rybakina’s records at Indian Wells
Of the two Australian Open champions, it’s Alcaraz who has performed best at Indian Wells.
Carlos Alcaraz at Indian Wells
- 2 X Champion (2023, 2024)
- 20-3 Win/Loss record
- 87% win rate
- Semifinalist in 2025
Elena Rybakina at Indian Wells
- 1 X Champion (2023)
- 11-3 Win/Loss record
- 79% win rate
- Lost in 4R in 2025
The Spaniard won back-to-back Indian Wells titles in 2023 and 2024, before narrowly missing out on a third consecutive final in 2025, losing to Jack Draper in three sets.
He’ll undoubtedly return with his sights set on a third title in 2026.
Rybakina, on the other hand, won her sole Indian Wells title back in 2023, defeating Sabalenka in straight sets, 7-6, 6-4.
She was, however, unable to return to defend her title in 2024 due to injury.
And couldn’t reclaim her crown in 2025 either, losing to the eventual champion Mirra Andreeva in the fourth round.
Only time will tell if she can get back to winning ways this year.
Indian Wells begins on Wednesday, March 4.
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