James Blake predicts if Novak Djokovic can win the Australian Open this year

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Novak Djokovic is just two wins away from a record-extending 11th Australian Open title.

The Serbian legend booked his place in the semifinals on Wednesday, as Lorenzo Musetti retired injured from their quarterfinal match.

He will now prepare to face Jannik Sinner, who beat Ben Shelton, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4.

Of the four semifinalists, Djokovic is by far the oldest, at 38, followed by Alexander Zverev (28), Sinner (24), and Carlos Alcaraz (22).

But will his age damage his chances of winning the Australian Open?

During ESPN’s coverage of the tournament, former world number four James Blake shared his thoughts.

James Blake doesn’t think Novak Djokovic will win the 2026 Australian Open

Blake’s fellow American, Chris Eubanks, was first asked if he thought Djokovic could win the Australian Open.

“I don’t think he can do it,” said Eubanks.

“I think the level of [Jannik] Sinner and [Carlos] Alcaraz is a bit too high right now, I say that with all due respect.

“But the one thing that you can account for is the level of greatness that [Novak] Djokovic has.

“Because of that greatness, you always have to give him a certain level of respect and kind of give him a shot, but from what I’m seeing from those other two guys, I think the task is a little bit too tall right now.”

Blake agreed with Eubanks and explained why he doesn’t think Djokovic will win the Australian Open.

“I agree, I think it is possibly too tall,” he said.

“But it is Novak.

“There’s a chance to get through one, but to get through two at this stage, it’s so difficult at that age.

“They do say that Father Time is undefeated.”

The 46-year-old credits Alcaraz and Sinner for catching up with Djokovic.

“He’s set the bar so high for longevity, with what he’s been able to do,” said Blake.

“I would actually give Sinner and Alcaraz credit for trying to reach that bar that he set.

“He’s the one who’s advanced the game, being able to be so great that these guys have to learn, to adapt and adjust, and find ways to improve their game to get to his level, and now they’ve surpassed him with younger legs.”

Blake’s money is on Sinner or Alcaraz lifting the title, but which of the four semifinalists has played the best so far in Australia?

How the four Australian Open semifinalists have performed so far

Djokovic, Alcaraz, Sinner, and Zverev have all impressed down under, but who has been the most dominant?

The answer, by far, is Alcaraz.

Reaching the semifinals without dropping a set, the Spaniard has looked imperious in Melbourne.

He’s played against some good players, too, including Tommy Paul and Alex de Minaur.

Sinner has also looked strong, except for a major blip against Elliot Spizzirri, where he struggled in the extreme heat.

The two-time defending champion has won 93% of the games he’s played this tournament, but has faced lower-ranked opposition than his rival, Alcaraz.

Then there’s Djokovic, who has played the fewest sets and games of the four semifinalists.

Benefitting from Jakub Mensik’s withdrawal and Musetti’s injury, Djokovic has only played 12 sets at the 2026 Australian Open.

He’s also played lower-ranked opponents than anyone else.

Finally, Zverev has had the toughest run of fixtures, defeating four top-50 players at the tournament.

But in doing so, the German dropped four sets and 72 games.

Looking at the stats, it’s not hard to see why Blake chose to back Sinner and Alcaraz ahead of Djokovic and Zverev.

The reality is that only time will tell who will emerge victorious in the semifinals.

Alcaraz will play Zverev, and Sinner will play Djokovic in the 2026 Australian Open semifinals on Friday, January 30.