Coco Gauff’s defeat in Cincinnati has just opened the door for Iga Swiatek ahead of the US Open

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It wasn’t to be for Coco Gauff in Cincinnati as she fell short in her bid to win the title.

The popular American had an easy ride through to the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati Open, beating Xinyu Wang in her opener, and Lucia Bronzetti in the fourth round, having received a bye after Dayana Yastremska withdrew from their third-round match.

Standing between Gauff and a place in the Cincinnati semis was Italy’s Jasmine Paolini, who had won their two previous matches.

In three sets, Paolini defeated Gauff 2-6, 6-4, 6-3, as the 21-year-old now turns her attention to the US Open.

Unfortunately for Gauff, her US Open chances may be about to take a slight hit, as she’s left the door open for her rival, Iga Swiatek, by losing in the Cincinnati quarterfinals.

Iga Swiatek can take the number two seed from Coco Gauff if she wins in Cincinnati

World number three, Swiatek, made light work of her quarterfinal opponent, taking down Anna Kalinskaya in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4.

In doing so, she kept her chances of being seeded second in New York alive.

If Swiatek were to win the title in Cincinnati, she would grab the number two seed (and world number two ranking) from Gauff.

Live WTA Rankings

WTA Rankings (If Iga Swiatek wins Cincinnati)

A title in Cincinnati would give Swiatek a 59-point lead over Gauff, which could pay dividends in New York.

Seeded second, Swiatek would avoid world number one, and defending champion Aryna Sabalenka until the final.

The Belarusian star has yet to win a major title in 2025, but has contested two finals, and is being tipped by many to defend her US Open crown next month.

Avoiding Sabalenka until the final would be ideal for Swiatek, and you only need to take a quick look at their Grand Slam final records to see why.

• Iga Swiatek’s record in Grand Slam finals: 6-0 (100%)
• Aryna Sabalenka’s record in Grand Slam finals: 3-3 (50%)

Any talk about potential US Open finals is, of course, premature, as Swiatek still has a lot of work to do if she wants to secure the number-two seeding.

First up for the Pole, is a tough test against former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, in the semifinals.

Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina’s head-to-head record

Taking down US Open-favorite Sabalenka in her quarterfinal match, Rybakina picked up the biggest win of her 2025 campaign.

She’ll now prepare for her tenth WTA Tour meeting with Swiatek, against whom she trails the head-to-head 4-5.

The good news for Swiatek is that she will take to the court having won all three of her matches against Rybakina in 2025.

Edging a three-set thriller in their most recent encounter, Swiatek defeated Rybakina 1-6, 6-3, 7-5, to book her place in the Roland Garros quarterfinals.

Looking to advance to her maiden Cincinnati Open final in 2025, Swiatek will be hoping for a repeat performance on Sunday.

If Swiatek were to secure the win over Rybakina, she would then play either Paolini or Veronika Kudermetova in the final.

She has a winning head-to-head record against both players, (Paolini 5-0, Kudermetova 4-1), and would therefore be the favorite to pick up her 11th WTA 1000 title.

However, tennis is never that predictable, and Swiatek will be more than aware of the challenges Rybakina, Paolini, and Kudermetova could provide.

Swiatek will play Rybakina, and Paolini will play Kudermetova in the semifinals of the 2025 Cincinnati Open on Sunday, August 17.