Daniil Medvedev won the Dubai Tennis Championships on a fast hard court last time out.
But there were concerns that he’d struggle on the traditionally slower, Indian Wells courts.
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However, it looks like Medvedev should be fine, as the surfaces have been sped up for the 2026 tournament.
40% increase in aces proves Indian Wells courts are faster this year
Now that the first round of matches have been completed, we can see how the courts compare to last year’s.
Players on both tours have been serving aces at will, proving the courts have been sped up.
Ace comparison (Indian Wells 2025-2026)
| Year | Men’s singles 1R Aces | Women’s singles 1R Aces | Total Aces |
| 2025 | 287 | 102 | 389 |
| 2026 | 373 (+30%) | 170 (+67%) | 543 (+40%) |
A 40% increase in the number of aces hit through one round is great news for the big servers on tour, Medvedev included.
The Russian should now have the opportunity to breeze through his service games, something he did so effectively in Dubai.
Ace breakdown (Indian Wells 2025-2026)
2025 Indian Wells Men’s singles 1R
- 287 total aces
- 9 aces per match
- Highest in a match (26) Alexander Bublik vs Yosuke Watanuki
- Lowest in a match (1) Jenson Brooksby vs Benjamin Bonzi/Alexander Shevchenko vs Rinky Hijikata
2025 Indian Wells Women’s singles 1R
- 102 total aces
- 3.2 aces per match
- Highest in a match (11) Rebecca Sramkova vs Lulu Sun
- Lowest in a match (0) Anna Blinkova vs McCartney Kessler/Katerina Siniakova vs Maria Lourdes Carle/Ajla Tomljanovic vs Caty McNally
2026 Indian Wells Men’s singles 1R
- 373 total aces
- 11.6 aces per match
- Highest in a match (23) Dino Prizmic vs Tristan Schoolkate
- Lowest in a match (0) Sebastian Baez vs Tseng Chun-hsin
2026 Indian Wells Women’s singles 1R
- 170 total aces
- 5.3 aces per match
- Highest in a match (14) Venus Williams vs Diane Parry
- Lowest in a match (0) Sloane Stephens vs Camila Osorio/Cristina Bucsa vs Darja Vidmanova
Medvedev will be pleased to see these numbers as he looks to win his first Masters 1000 title since 2023 (Italian Open).
And if Indian Wells isn’t an anomaly, and the rest of the tour reverts to laying down the quicker courts we saw a few years back, Medvedev could seriously be one to look out for.
After dominating an in-form Felix Auger-Aliassime in Dubai, Medvedev shared his thoughts on the courts used on tour.
“If you give me some fast courts like they were before, maybe I can do something like this!” said Medvedev.
“But there are not many courts like this on the tour anymore.”
What will Daniil Medvedev’s ranking be at the end of the 2026 season?
Could Medvedev make a return to the top five?
At his best, Medvedev won a Grand Slam title and reached world number one.
It looked like his best days were past him, but if the courts speed up, perhaps we could see Medvedev make a charge back up the rankings and challenge for a second major title.
Who will Daniil Medvedev play at Indian Wells?
Arriving late to Indian Wells, Medvedev won’t play his opening match until Saturday.
He’ll play Chilean star Alejandro Tabilo in the second round.
The pair have never met before on the ATP Tour, but Medvedev will still be confident of picking up the win.
Should he do so, he’d meet either Sebastian Baez or Jiri Lehecka in the third round.
Daniil Medvedev’s Indian Wells draw
| Round | Highest-ranked potential opponent | Potential seeded opponents |
| 1R (Bye) | – | – |
| 2R | Alejandro Tabilo (40) | – |
| 3R | Jiri Lehecka (23) | [22] Jiri Lehecka |
| 4R | Taylor Fritz (7) | [7] Taylor Fritz, [32] Ugo Humbert |
| QF | Novak Djokovic (3) | [3] Novak Djokovic, [14] Jack Draper, [19] Francisco Cerundolo, [31] Corentin Moutet |
| SF | Carlos Alcaraz (1) | [1] Carlos Alcaraz, [6] Alex de Minaur, [10] Alexander Bublik, [13] Casper Ruud, [20] Luciano Darderi, [24] Valentin Vacherot, [26] Arthur Rinderknech, [27] Cameron Norrie |
| F | Jannik Sinner (2) | [2] Jannik Sinner, [4] Alexander Zverev, [5] Lorenzo Musetti, [8] Ben Shelton, [9] Felix Auger-Aliassime, [12] Jakub Mensik, [15] Flavio Cobolli, [16] Karen Khachanov, [17] Andrey Rublev, [18] Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, [21] Frances Tiafoe, [23] Tommy Paul, [25] Learner Tien, [28] Brandon Nakashima, [29] Tomas Martin Etcheverry, [30] Arthur Fils |
Neither player should be taken lightly, but it’s in the fourth round that Medvedev would face his first real test.
Former champion Taylor Fritz is the Russian’s most likely opponent in the last 16.
If Medvedev is suited to these faster Indian Wells courts, he’ll be in with a great chance of causing an upset and advancing to the quarterfinals.
Things won’t get much easier from there, though, as Medvedev may need to defeat Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, and Jannik Sinner in consecutive matches to clinch the title.
Only time will tell how well Medvedev will perform in California, but you certainly won’t want to miss any of the action.
Medvedev will play Tabilo in the second round on Saturday, March 7.
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